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The Case of The Disappearing Rate Cuts

The Case of The Disappearing Rate Cuts

The Fed expected to be able to cut rates 3 times in 2024 as recently as March. Financial markets agreed. But the data that's come out since then has everyone singing a different tune.  This week's data was more of an afterthought compared to last week's. The chart above pertains to Fed rate expectations, and that's not exactly the same as longer term rates like mortgages and 10yr Treasury yields.  The latter saw a bit more volatility this week. Monday's Retail Sales data was much stronger than expected and markets reacted immediately.  Tuesday's data was consequential, but it was followed by a speech in which Fed Chair Powell had an opportunity to provide some updated thoughts on the rate outlook.  After all, the Fed hadn't seen the most recent CPI data (and several other stron
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