New Home Sales Look Like They Want to Bounce
The Census Bureau's regularly scheduled monthly report on New Home Sales was released this morning. The annual pace of 616k was right in line with the median forecast of 617k. This is technically an improvement, but only because the previous month was revised down to 602k from 640k.
In the big picture, it doesn't much matter if today's data is a bit better or worse than last month's. It's unequivocally better than it was on several occasions in the middle of 2022 when the annual pace was closer to 550k. If sales can avoid revisiting that territory, 550k will increasingly look like a long-term floor in the bigger picture.
If sales numbers are finally bouncing, some credit could go to inventory finally doing the same. After being squeezed down to all-time lows in early 2020, new
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