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10yr Yield and Mortgage Rates; Price Gains Getting More Sustainable

10yr Yield and Mortgage Rates; Price Gains Getting More Sustainable

Mortgage rates have been putting on a rather frustrating and exciting show in the month of August. On the one hand, they're at or near their lowest levels in 3 years. On the other hand, they're not nearly as low as you'd expect them to be based on movement in markets that almost always track mortgages in lock-step. The 10yr Treasury yield, above all other interest rates has long been thought to dictate mortgage rate movement. That's a complicated thesis to evaluate, because it's true and false at the same time. It's certainly true that Treasuries set the tone for almost any interest rate in the US. They're like an aircraft carrier and other rates are like planes, helicopters, soldiers, rafts, boats, and unmanned submersibles that are along for the ride. At any given time, mortgage rates may
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